The World Energy Outlook Report 2019 issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) does three scenarios analysis of the prospects of various types of energy power generation: 1) the current policies scenario (CPS); 2) implementation has been promised Policy (stated policy scenario, referred to as SPS, that is, to achieve the emission reduction commitments of countries under the Paris agreement); 3) sustainable development scenario (SDS) required to achieve sustainable development.
So, what is the prospect of the photovoltaic market in sunny Africa? The cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in Africa in 2018 was only 4 gigawatts, accounting for 0.8% of the global photovoltaic installed capacity (495 gigawatts).
——If it continues in accordance with the current policy (CPS scenario), the cumulative PV installed capacity in Africa in 2040 can reach 62 GW, accounting for 2.5% of global photovoltaic installed capacity; an average annual increase of 2.6 GW during 2018-2040.
——If the commitments of the Paris Climate Agreement (SPS scenario) are fully implemented, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in Africa in 2040 can reach 135 GW, accounting for 4.3% of global photovoltaic installations; an average annual increase of about 6 GW during 2018-2040 .
——According to the requirements of sustainable development (SDS scenario), the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics in Africa in 2040 should reach 317 GW, accounting for 7.6% of global photovoltaic installations; an average annual increase of 14 GW during 2018-2040.